ERS uses data science to calculate the statistical probability and magnitude of future stock price changes.

Date Price FID™
Rating
Gain
(Loss)
3/9/2009 \$12.10 16 1,826%
6/25/2014 \$233.07 94
6/25/2014 \$233.07 94 -76%
3/18/2020 \$56.77 7
3/18/2020 \$56.77 7 318%
10/10/2023 \$237.41 18

ERS’s FID™ ratings range from 0 to 100, where 0 indicates the highest statistical probability and magnitude of future stock price gains and 100 indicates the highest statistical probability and magnitude of future stock price losses.

During the 10 years from 10/10/2013 to 10/10/2023, Pioneer‘s FID™ rating has ranged from as low as 7 to as high as 97. The periods when Pioneer‘s FID™ rating was lowest were also the times when investing in Pioneer was most likely to be profitable.

If an investor had bought Pioneer on every day when it had a FID™ under 16.2, he would have made money over 75% of the time if he held it for 6 months or less, or 100% of the time if held for between 9 months and 2 years. The average return from these investments can be seen on the left chart.

If an investor had bought Pioneer on every day when it had a FID™ between 16.2 and 88.3, he would have made money around 55% of the time, and he would have averaged a gain of less than 20%, even if he held it for as long as 2 years, as the middle chart shows.

Conversely, if an investor had bought Pioneer on every day when it had a FID™ over 88.3, he would have made money less than 33% of the time, and he would have averaged a loss of around 20% if he held it for 6 months or more, as the right chart shows.

When the FID™ Rating Was: 7 – 25 25 – 43 43 – 61 61 – 79 79 – 97
% Probability of Gains 99.3% 67.5% 71.7% 71.8% 28.0%
Average 1-Year Return 118.3% 9.7% 26.0% 20.6% -8.5%
Number of Days 433 1342 1103 995 917
Number of Gains 430 906 791 714 257
Average Gain 119.4% 31.2% 46.4% 35.4% 21.3%
Average Loss -41.5% -35.0% -25.5% -16.6% -20.1%

ERS’s FID™ ratings range from 0 to 100.
A rating of 0 represents the least risk, and 100 represents the most risk.

Equity Risk Sciences, Inc. uses data science to calculate the statistical probability and magnitude of future stock price changes. Using ERS’s technology, fiduciaries and financial institutions can increase their business and profitability.
How? By improving their clients’ investment performance.
How? By using ERS’s risk and performance ratings to manage their portfolios.

Using ERS’s proprietary FID™ rating, investors could have identified multiple opportunities to invest very profitably in Pioneer over the past 20 years. Investing in Pioneer at the best times, when its FID™ was under 12, resulted in a 99% probability of making a gain 1 year later. Conversely, investing in Pioneer at the worst times, when its FID™ was over 79, resulted in a loss 72% of the time when held for 1 year.

11/17/2008: PXD had a \$2.56 billion market cap and a low-risk FID™ rating of 10. One year later, PXD‘s market cap was 95% higher at \$5.02 billion.

6/30/2013: PXD had a market cap of \$32.9 Billion and a FID™ rating of 94, indicating extremely high risk. One year later the company’s market value fell to \$20.7 billion, a 37% loss.

9/30/2020: PXD had a market cap of \$14.1 billion and a FID™ of 14. One year later, the market cap increased 187% to \$40.7 billion.

3/10/2023: PXD‘s FID™ rating returned to historically desirable levels of 25 or less. Over the 7 months leading up to the Exxon/Mobil acquisition from 3/10/23 to 10/10/23, its price appreciated from \$198.78 to \$237.41, a 19% increase.